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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • I don’t think Massie would be pushing this if he didn’t know it would pass. There are some 40-ish Republicans who were either pushed out of their Primaries by Trump (like Massie) or who lost their elections in safe districts largely because of the war. Every Democrat should vote for it, and Massie is voting for it, so I think he needs only 3 Republicans to back it. He’ll get at least 20.

    After the resolution passes, though, the House’s role is done. Then you need to watch what the Senate does. You need 20 of the current 53 Republican Senators to go along. But, how many of them are lame ducks also because of the war, and how many others are pissed that they are going to be in the minority next year because of it?



  • The only official that has a chance of getting booted before the new Congress is sworn in is Hegseth, because absolutely nobody likes him, and Republicans can make him into a scapegoat on the war. Then Senate Republicans can turn around and tell Trump to put a sane person in charge, or else they wont seat his replacement and Trump will have to work with Schumer to get a new guy in office.

    Thomas definely needs to be impeached, I think all the evidence is there, but I doubt there will ever be enough votes in the Senate to do it, even after the new Senate is seated. We have a better chance of reforming the Court through an amendment than of impeaching Thomas. Republicans might as well be voting to dissolve themselves if they vote to boot Thomas.


  • Blame the SCOTUS for turning an unofficial Justice Department Policy into a Constitutional Principle. The Justice Department is run by the President, after all. What guarantee do we have that any investigation would be fair?

    The President’s bogus lawsuit against the IRS awarding him eleventy billion dollars and “settling” for a ban on auditing his finances is a perfect example. A judge threw that out, legitimately, because when the President sues an agency he is in charge of, there are no adverse parties, and any “settlement” is a sham. (That whole affair would be an impeachable offense if someone with a blue tie tried that.)

    That wasn’t a criminal prosecution, but imagine if Todd Blanche tomorrow announced that he had “investigated” Trump’s crypto grift and found that it was entirely above board, nothing to see there, and we should all just stop talking about it. Would we believe him?

    The policy of the DoJ not investigating the President was meant to protect the integrity of the DoJ, not the President.

    It was always envisioned that a truly corrupt President could be investigated after the fact, by a DoJ that doesn’t report to him. I have no clue why the SCOTUS saw something stricter in the penumbra of the Constitution.


  • And if Trump wants to, he can veto laws unless Democrats can get some Republican legislators onboard.

    I think it is very likely for Democrats to get enough Republican votes to sustain a veto on specific issues, particularly on the war and on tariffs. Both bills would have to be crafted with Republican input, and be focused more on asserting Congress’s authority than on punishing past actions. But they should reinforce firm bounds that the President can’t sneak around.

    But, conveniently enough, the threshold for overriding a veto is also more than sufficient for impeachment. So if Trump has constraints placed on him via a veto override, and he ignores them, the next logical step would be to impeach him over it. When drafting the bill, in exchange for the weaker language that Republicans would insist on, Democrats should insist that if Trump ignores even that, that Republicans should support ousting him. At that point, it’s not a matter of party anymore, it’s a matter of whether Congress has any power at all.

    Democrats won’t get this courtesy from Republicans on anything else, so they should make sure to work together on this, as long as I am right and there are enough Republicans now willing to buck the President on this.







  • The next few weeks might be even more interesting then after the new Congress takes over. Because there are some 50-ish Republicans in the House (and another handful in the Senate) who are short-timers now, and probably blame their impending lapse in employment directly on Trump’s war. And bunch of others who just barely held on to their jobs.

    Massie is going to move to impeach Hegseth over the war next week, and it’s probably gonna pass. We’ll have to see what Thune does with it in the Senate, he might still have his Senate gig but has to give up the majority to Chuck, and he knows its because of the war. He might go ahead and let them vote Hegseth out. Nobody likes Hegseth anyway. He’s been blocking promotions of anyone who isn’t white and male, and many of these same Senators understand how mind-numbingly stupid that is. A new SecDef can unblock them (at least for the ones who haven’t quit already.) I think if these articles reached the Senate over the summer he would have been gone then, the election just solidifies how much they all hate him.

    Then, the key battle will be who replaces him. Republicans would be motivated to pick a replacement before they give up control to Chuck. If Trump’s “grip on the party” really is slipping, then Thune and Mitch will sit down wih Trump and give him a list of establishment picks to choose from, and tell him that if he picks anyone else, they won’t confirm them and he will have to deal with Chuckles. However, if he appoints another yoyo, and that gets confirmed, we will know that Senate Republicans lost their spine along with their majority.









  • The SC expansion would need to be tied to the number of federal circuits, assuming that’s why you suggested 4, so that the addition isn’t just met by more retaliatory additions later on.

    Yup, you got it.

    While we are dreaming of a better future, why not also reform the House to build true representation based on population and remove the cap of 435. Revive the Wyoming rule.

    This is necessary, also. It doesn’t require an amendment, only legislation. It would make things fairer all around. But it is only practical if Democrats have nukes the filibuster for other reasons.