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Cake day: February 7th, 2025

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  • Also generating subtitles for my mother’s foreign films I guess?

    You mean mapping learned patterns (speech) to other patterns (words)? Yes, that’s actually what it’s really good at.

    Of course, if those films invented completely new words, it would be out of its depth. Weird pronunciations may also produce weird text. It might get things wrong either way occasionally.

    But if it’s within the boundaries of its training material, it’ll generally produce reasonable output, and in that context, the occasional aberration doesn’t matter as much (particularly if the human brain can compensate).

    Just don’t ask it to generate anything where factuality matters.




  • So much of international relations hinges on diplomatic credibility and fidelity.

    In a security dilemma, every party needs to arm themselves to deter others from attacking and inadvertently poses a threat to their neighbours, who have to arm themselves in turn. Eventually, some manoeuvre might be misunderstood as preparation for an attack, or some megalomaniac actually does launch an attack and the powder keg erupts into a destructive mess.

    Trust and the mutual understanding that neither side really wants war is crucial to escaping this arms race, free resources to build civil infrastructure, establish trade relations and prosper together. Even if the foreign policy of the US was deeply self-serving, it was fairly predictable. For many weaker states, living under their thumb at least offered some shelter - not ideal, but you have to worry less about your neighbour if you know the US will protect their foreign inyerests. And for the wealthier countries, of course, it provided stable trade and access to goods we might not otherwise get (let alone that cheaply).

    Trump and his merry band of cunts are pissing all that trust away. I’m not going to shed tears over the US undermining its own dominance, but the collateral damage shouldn’t be underestimated. Whatever international order may emerge when the dust settles, I fear that the collapse of this one will be messy.





  • They didn’t elect people to positions, because they thought that would lead to popularity contests doninated by the wealthy (🤔).

    We should note that the body of eligible (adult male) citizens was far from representative. If 20% of the population were slaves or other non-citizens (leaving 80% citizens), half were women (leaving 40%) and 25% were children (leaving 30%), 70% of the population were unrepresented.

    And that’s for the more democratic cities like Athens; oligarchic ones might well implement wealth requirements for full citizenship and some like Sparta were particularly draconic with limting membership (to the point of self-destruction when their citizen body dwindled and they refused to admit new Spartiates).

    (Also, Generals actually were elected, but that makes sense since you probably don’t want to randomly allot some guy that might or might not have the skills to coordinate army movement and activities, or might not even be wealthy enough to serve as hoplite themselves because armour is expensive.)





  • Per their product page and personal sources (not secret, just doxxing risk):

    They’re great for construction sites, factory floors, hazard response, because they can move in places humans can’t (or shouldn’t) for inspections, documentation and such, while also more flexible in navigating obstacles than wheeled or tracked robots. They can monitor active operations with greater leeway because they’re less concerned with safety risks.

    If a chain snaps and a human was too close to heavy moving parts, that’s a family’s worth of pain, grief and worries over income, trauma for everyone present, and an expensive cleaning bill if you’re an executive so devoid of empathy things need a price tag to move you.

    If it catches a robodog, that’s less than $100k of damages and maybe some extra footage to help avoid future accidents (and cleaning bills).

    (Granted, Cerberus is a military version, but I assume they thought it’d be the military extension of that principle, detecting mines and such.)


  • I’m not sure AI in this form will ever find a trillion-dollar problem to solve that would justify the sheer amount of money being burned on it. It’s too limited in its capacities and too inefficient for what little it can do reliably.

    If a significant technological breakthrough comes along that permits actual reasoning and evaluation, coupled with some capacity to reliably extract such reasoning tasks from natural language input, its capabilities might expand enough to actually fill some of the roles it has been hyped up for.

    Simultaneously, it would need a massive improvement in efficiency (both in terms of cost and in energy and water demand) to make it financially feasible.

    I think the comparison would work better if, say, some new removable storage medium LargeDisk had been all the rage for transfering large amounts of data, and everyone was building LD factories and founding LD Express services to facilitate fast delivery of large amounts of data. You just call a data distributor, such as a video rental service, order a few movies and a few hours later a courier arrives. You hand them the LD from your last order to return, then take the new back to your home cinema and plug it in.

    Then along comes high-speed internet. Suddenly, transferring LDs is cumbersome and slow, when you can just stream those movies faster. No more ordering in bulk to make the delivery fee worth it, no more waiting for hours. LDs persist, but they become part of your home cinema instead, the place where such movies are stored.

    Sure, the demand for LDs will briefly collapse, then steadily rise as more people build their own home cinema, but it won’t be for the LD’s merit alone.



  • Until then, I will continue to exploit the parasites that fund this largesse.

    Did you miss the part where you’re also exploiting all the people hurt and the environment polluted in the process of building and operating power lines, power plants and data centers?

    Or the part where the crash would come down on the neck of taxpayers? The parasites will be fine when the dust settles, chip and cloud resource vendors will have made a pretty penny, the executives’ salaries will have built a wonderful cushion to land on. But if people lose their savings or pension funds need bailing out, that’s a textbook example of the “socialise the losses” part of capitalism.

    Or that they might actually get away with racking up the prices far enough to become profitable and stabilise the bubble, which would most certainly also come at terrible cost to the individual worker, whether or not they personally used or endorsed these tools?

    Nothing about this should be cheered on, neither the possibility of the bubble stabilising the prospect of its crash. The only winners in this farce of a gold rush will be the ones selling the tools for everyone else’s misfortune.

    The sooner it pops, the lesser the damage, but damage it has done and will do.

    Use it, if you must, and hope that you won’t find your own skills having rotted away after all, but don’t delude yourself that it’s some noble act of sticking it to the rich.




  • to give you some context, in the US there is no popular vote for presidency.

    I’m aware, and I’m also a vocal opponent of the FPTP system that produces the spoiler effect in the first place, without which the whole question would be moot. But as you said, there is little incentive for either of the big parties to change the system that keeps them in power. Frankly, if there is to be any hope for democratic change, I think that thing has to be the fdreamto go.

    my vote for president in the general has essentially zero impact. the democrats win by such a large margin that voting no confidence or for communists running 3rd party is more ‘useful’ under the reform-electoral framework than voting for the democrats. getting a party that challenges capital to a non-negligible percentage is what communists should do if the option is available.

    if anything it’s the ‘blue no matter who’ browbeating which is serving to suppress left-wing dissent in the party. there are a lot of states in the country where that’s the wrong position. if democrats had anti-capitalist 3rd party challengers in safe blue states, they might actually have to be something other than diet republicans.

    Yeah, that’s what I meant (unless I forgot to add it) with voting third party in places where it doesn’t matter. Even in places where democrats lose by a large margin, third party would be a reasonable choice for sending that signal. Imagine their faces if they came in third in a red state… Ah, one can dream.

    i vote for whatever progressive challengers there are in the primaries, however this year there has been a widespread pattern of democrats winning their primaries and then abandoning trans people. every day there’s a new campaign ad from democrats across the country talking about ‘protecting girls sports’.

    Okay, this is definitely an issue of perspective on my part. I didn’t see as much of that, but you’ll obviously be far more sensitive to that issue. Yeah, no debate, that’s fucked up.

    they were arrested.

    Something something bastards…

    the reason ‘libs’ are so broadly hated is because they serve capital and protect institutions over people.

    The difficulty I have with this is that I occadionally see people decried as libs that don’t seem to share that sentiment. This might not be you specifically, but there is a vocal part of the fediverse that seems bent on putting people in boxes to beat on. I’ve also been called liberal before because I disagreed with someone on some point. I might have well been wrong then, as I have been here too on some points, and I know I’m not entitled to any correction, but instead of any nuanced treatment, my entire worldview was reduced to that interpretation of my statement.

    In short, my concern is that the label “libs” has been (mis-)used so broadly that I’m not convinced your statement holds for everyone who has been subjected to that designation.

    To be clear, I’m not saying that it doesn’t apply to actual liberals. I’m right with you on hating people that think a CEO making several hundred times as much as the person cleaning their pissoir is justified, respond to any mention of police violence with the same anecdote about a cocktail being thrown at cops that one time or tilt at the “leftist lunatics” for being disruptive with their protests. Those are all personal examples I’ve picked fights over.

    I’m saying there’s a demography of political “orphans” that want things to get better, don’t know any other system than the one they’ve grown up in and default to liberalism out of ignorance and uncertainty. In my opinion, they don’t deserve the same hatred, and I feel we should be more precise in that regard.

    That said, I absolutely understand that you’ve got enough troubles and, after worrying about healthcare, livelihood and the right to exist, don’t have the nerve or patience to spare to also worry about the distinction between those who hurt you and those who watch it happen and do nothing. I mistook that for arrogance, but I agree that you don’t owe anyone that charity.

    I’m very glad you went to this length to talk to me and show me perspectives I genuinely didn’t know. You’ve given me things to think about, to talk to other people about, to check my own preconceptions.

    I hope things get better for you.


  • Maybe there’s a regional difference then? I’m passing on the synthesis of lectures I’ve been given by other transgender communists and people of color, but I don’t know where they’re based. In any case, there clearly are dems that do defend trans rights; I’m sorry that the rest are failing you.

    that pressure dissipated when the left got absorbed into electoralism.

    Yeah, the idea that elections alone can fix anything is bullshit and I’ll admit I took long to understand that lesson. It only really sank in after 2021, I think.

    Change needs to be cemented with popular support to stick, but the pressure to change things in the first place will need to come from outside.

    do you really think the same people that built these structures up will dismantle them?

    No. That’s why their traditionalist leadership is so incensed at the “insurgency” of progressive candidates gaining visibility and influence in primaries: they don’t want those structures challenged, but the fact that people are electing reformers at all is a threat to their democratic legitimacy for preserving the structures. Their efforts might fail, but for now, they’re a problem to the leadership.

    By contrast, the Republicans have made an explicit point of suppressing all dissent. There are no (visible) challengers, because no freedom of expression is allowed in the first place. Whatever charge of building and maintaining such structures we may bring against the Democrats, the Republicans have made things much worse. Any semi-progressive measures the Obama administration might have undertaken were rolled back, while any restrictive ones were accelerated.

    The notion that both sides are equal just smudges over a lot of these distinctions. Obama wasn’t great, but this is significantly worse.

    i do vote, just not for genocidal centrist parties

    The idea to vote left in primaries, but vote anti-right in general elections where actual leftist chances are slim for all the reasons you’ve brought up. When one option is objectively worse in some aspects and better in none, standing on the moral high ground does nothing for the people in the valley being overrun. All they hear from the right is the propaganda “They want to take away all your shit” and all they see from us is hostility and condescension.

    Don’t get me wrong, voting left is better than not voting at all, and if it’s a deeply one-sided election, it may even be more prudent. But the message “I won’t vote for the people that’ll hurt you less” sounds a lot like “I won’t protect you”. I don’t think that’s your intention, but from the conversations I’ve head, that’s the impression many get.

    That’s really the core of my argument: many liberal voters don’t really want this, but don’t (yet) see the restrictions of the system and how it preserves this shit. We don’t yet have the leverage to topple the system, and with each step the fascists get to take, it’ll become harder to build that leverage.

    Hence, I believe that we should adapt our messaging (not our ideals, just the way we present them) to be less hostile to the closest thing we get in terms of like-minded people. It’s not a problem of ideology, but of PR. We’re not gonna radicalise voters that perceive us as arrogant pricks, just feed into the “left and right are both bad” centrist narrative of complacency.

    If we can emphasise that we (mostly) want the same goals - life, liberty, happiness - it will be easier to talk about the reasons that’s impossible right now and the measures we suggest to make it possible.

    (As an aside, that’s the problem at the heart of leftist infighting: we tend to forget that we ultimately want the same thing and get hung up on fights about how to achieve it until we accuse each other of being the enemy.)

    from where im standing the priviliged one is you

    Point taken. Your talking points sounded a lot like the ones I’ve heard others complain about; chalking that up to privilege instead of a different perspective is my mistake. Diminishing your struggles wasn’t my intention.