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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • In China, the AI bubble has already burst

    … The meltdown, tanking the mainland STAR50 index of AI and semiconductor leaders by 40% in less than four months and vaporising some $480 billion in market value, is an ill omen for wobbly world markets and a dampener on China’s efforts at encouraging its savers into stocks to fund the AI boom.

    … With AI stocks running to 42% of China’s market capitalisation and 57% of turnover across mainland-listed A-shares and Hong Kong’s H-shares, according to Goldman Sachs, few in a market dominated by small investors have escaped pain.

    … Shares in robot-maker Unitree, 8,000 times oversubscribed by retail buyers at listing, have halved since they started trading in August, and chipmaker CXMT has lost more than a quarter of its value in the past month.

    … Chipmakers MetaX Integrated Circuits and Moore Threads Technology, which leapt 700% and 400% respectively on their market debuts last year, have also halved in value since July.

    … Frustration that an investment theme backed by Beijing has ended so badly has driven many investors into defensive assets and is likely to slow equity fundraising by tech firms.

    A remarkable detail in China, citing the report:

    The frenzy and its fallout contrast with a push by authorities to improve returns and dampen volatility by cracking down on leverage and high-frequency trading. State-backed investors were sellers into rallies to keep gains in check.

    [Emphasis mine.]